Can we use first round clocks to predict the Derby or Oaks winner?

This post was originally posted at this time last year- I’ve updated it to reflect last year’s results and earlier results.

Just how much can we rely on clocks to predict the winners in the Derby and Oaks?

I’ve looked at the last 8 National Meetings and examined the first round times of the Derby and Oaks. Only Adios Alonso and Sullane Sign have led on the clock after round 1 and gone on to win the stake. The 2010 Derby times work out to be the most reliable with 6 of the quarter finalists clocking in the top 8 in the opening round.

Of course the fastest dogs and bitches could very well meet each other in the opening round or knock each other out but the results are interesting nonetheless.

Derby Times 2013- 2006

Derby 2013

Fastest- Newinn Wonder– 12.36
Winner- Thomas The Tank– 3rd fastest
2 of 8 fastest made Quarters

Derby 2012

Fastest- Blueview Sam– 12.44 (Beat final)
Winner- Go Home Hare– 12.55 (T-5th fastest)
5 of 8 fastest made Quarters

Derby 2011

Fastest- Newry Legend– 12.70 (Withdrawn 3rd round)
Winner- Central City– 13.04 (17th fastest)
2 of 8 fastest made Quarters

Derby 2010

Fastest- Adios Alonso– 12.38
Winner- Adios Alonso (Fastest)
6 of 8 fastest made Quarters

Derby 2009

Fastest- Wallace Green– 13.03 (Beat 3rd round)
Winner- Kingsmill Dynamo– 13.42 (19th fastest)
1 of 8 fastest made Quarters

Derby 2008

Fastest- Catunda Ashmore– 11.63 (Beat semi-final)
Winner- Razor Ashmore– 11.90 (22rd fastest)
4 of 8 fastest made Quarters

Derby 2007

Fastest- Murtys Shadow– 11.60 (Beat 3rd round)
Winner- Micromover– 11.70 (9th fastest)
2 of 8 fastest made Quarters

Derby 2006

Fastest- Musical Time– 11.35 (Beat 3rd round)
Winner- Bexhill Eoin– 11.40 (5th fastest)
3 of 8 fastest made Quarters

Oaks Times 2007- 2012

2013 Oaks

Fastest- Ardmore Charmer– 12.48 (Beat final)
Winner- Smart Ali– 12.60 (Joint-8th)
2 of 8 fastest made Quarters

2012 Oaks

Fastest- Fives Treasure– 12.44 (Beat semi-final)
Winner- Dale Roisin– 12.78 (T-19th fastest)
2 of 8 fastest made Quarters

2011 Oaks

Fastest- Leigh Countess– 12.79 (Beat 3rd Round)
Winner- Skellig Babe– 13.01 (11th fastest)
2 of 8 fastest made Quarters

2010 Oaks

Fastest- Lucan Glory– 12.67 (Beat semi final)
Winner- Lisloose Accord 12.96 (15th fastest)
4 of 8 fastest made quarters

2009 Oaks

Fastest- Kingsmill Bliss– 12.97 (Beat 3rd round)
Winner- Fortuna– 13.25 (T-6th fastest)
3 of 8 fastest made quarters

2008 Oaks

Fastest- Droopys Scotch and Sullane Sign– both 11.75 (Beat 2nd round and Winner)
Winner-Sullane Sign– 11.75
4 of 8 fastest made quarters

2007 Oaks

Fastest- Lucan Diva– 11.67 (Withdrawn 3rd round)
Winner- Qualityandgold– 11.70 (3rd fastest)
4 of 8 fastest made quarters

2006 Oaks

Fastest- Spruce Rio– 11.47 (Beaten 3rd round)
Winner- Mountain Guest– 11.59 (Joint 16th fastest)
5 of 8 fastest made quarters

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